Screenhead

With the 81st Academy Award Ceremony on tonight, it’s time to put our movie knowledge to the test, and guess who will win what this year.

But the one prediction that everyone agrees on is not who will win, but that the ceremony will lose. Despite the organisers attempting to liven up the ceremony by getting Hugh Jackman, a song-and-dance man, to host, the choice of films up for Best Picture only highlight the growing chasm between the choices of the Academy and the choices of the public. Out of the Best Picture nominees, only The Curious Case of Benjamin Button has broken 100mil domestic. Slumdog Millionaire is on its way there, but lagging behind are the remaining three nominees, none of which even made it beyond 30 mil in the US.

And if that isn’t reason enough, there’s the even curiouser case of the absence of The Dark Knight. It’s rare to see a film that is so popular (it just broke a billion dollars worldwide) and so critically acclaimed that isn’t acknowledged by an award ceremony (besides technical awards and Heath Ledger’s nomination for Best Supporting Actor, which can be argued is only there due to the actor’s tragic death). Even Titanic swept the Oscars and won Best Picture. While many dismiss comic book films as fluff, The Dark Knight displayed the capability of a blockbuster dealing with serious issues (indeed, it shares many themes with No Country for Old Men). And this lack of understanding of the masses will result in only further public disillusionment towards the ceremony.

On to the awards themselves…

Best Picture will undoubtedly be Slumdog Millionaire. The film’s premise of a poor boy’s rise to fame through hardships has been mimicked by the success of the film itself, which is fast becoming a household name, ensuring that everyone has seen it, and most love it’s edgy style yet romantic heart. The only real contender is Benjamin Button, a film that has earned as much yawns as teary eyes.

Likewise, Danny Boyle is certain to pick up an award for Best Director. Even critics of Slumdog (like myself) cannot deny the energy bursting out of each frame of the film. His talent stands out far beyond the likes of his fellow nominees, such as Oscar-chaser Ron Howard.

It was a shame not to see The Wrestler earning more nominations. However, Mickey Rourke should beat Sean Penn to win an award for Best Actor. The voters are not unaware of this film being the real comeback for the washed-up actor. Penn was excellent as Harvey Milk, but his reputation as being an award-hound, as well as having already won, should see Rourke at the podium.

Kate Winslett is one of the best actresses around, and while it was surprising to see her get nominated for The Reader (with its average reviews and poor box-office intake) over Revolutionary Road, I think the Acadamy feel she’s due for a reward. The only other contender is Ann Hathaway, but frankly the publicity of indie-flick Rachel Getting Married was dead-on-arrival.

As mentioned above, Heath Ledger will without doubt get awarded for his creepy performance as the Joker, but Supporting Actress is an interesting one. Penelope Cruz is favourite for her fiery role in Vicky Cristina Barcelona (a film that deserves cinematography and screenplay noms, but failed to receive them), but strong competition comes from Marissa Tomei in The Wrestler, and Viola Davis, for her brief but memorable performance in Doubt.

Screenplay awards are often the hardest to predict, but expect Martin McDonagh to get recognised for his witty yet intense dialogue in In Bruges, and either Slumdog or Frost/Nixon nabbing Adapted Screenplay gongs.

The technical awards should be divided between The Dark Knight, for its intensity and huge budget, and Slumdog for its pace and creativity.

Waltz with Bashir, the powerful animated documentary from Israel, has made more of a splash than its fellow Best Foreign Film nominees, but Cannes winner The Class has a fighting chance. And Man on Wire is bound to win Best Documentary due to consistently ecstatic reviews.

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